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Simple simulation of diffusion bridges with application to likelihood inference for diffusions

机译:扩散桥的简单模拟及其应用可能性   推断扩散

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摘要

With a view to statistical inference for discretely observed diffusionmodels, we propose simple methods of simulating diffusion bridges,approximately and exactly. Diffusion bridge simulation plays a fundamental rolein likelihood and Bayesian inference for diffusion processes. First a simplemethod of simulating approximate diffusion bridges is proposed and studied.Then these approximate bridges are used as proposal for an easily implementedMetropolis-Hastings algorithm that produces exact diffusion bridges. The newmethod utilizes time-reversibility properties of one-dimensional diffusions andis applicable to all one-dimensional diffusion processes with finitespeed-measure. One advantage of the new approach is that simple simulationmethods like the Milstein scheme can be applied to bridge simulation. Anotheradvantage over previous bridge simulation methods is that the proposed methodworks well for diffusion bridges in long intervals because the computationalcomplexity of the method is linear in the length of the interval. For$\rho$-mixing diffusions the approximate method is shown to be particularlyaccurate for long time intervals. In a simulation study, we investigate theaccuracy and efficiency of the approximate method and compare it to exactsimulation methods. In the study, our method provides a very good approximationto the distribution of a diffusion bridge for bridges that are likely to occurin applications to statistical inference. To illustrate the usefulness of thenew method, we present an EM-algorithm for a discretely observed diffusionprocess.
机译:为了对离散观测的扩散模型进行统计推断,我们提出了一种近似且精确地模拟扩散桥的简单方法。扩散桥模拟在扩散过程的似然性和贝叶斯推断中起着基本作用。首先提出并研究了一种模拟近似扩散桥的简单方法,然后将这些近似桥用作易于实现的产生精确扩散桥的Metropolis-Hastings算法的建议。该新方法利用了一维扩散的时间可逆性,并适用于所有具有有限速度测度的一维扩散过程。新方法的优点之一是可以将简单的仿真方法(如Milstein方案)应用于桥梁仿真。与以前的桥梁仿真方法相比,另一个优点是该方法在较长的间隔内对于扩散桥效果很好,因为该方法的计算复杂度在间隔的长度上是线性的。对于混合混合扩散,在较长的时间间隔内,近似方法特别准确。在仿真研究中,我们研究了近似方法的准确性和效率,并将其与精确模拟方法进行了比较。在研究中,我们的方法为扩散桥的分布提供了非常好的近似值,对于可能在统计推断中应用的桥梁。为了说明新方法的有效性,我们提出了一种用于离散观测扩散过程的EM算法。

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